OrtaKantin.com, which became a successful application by taking classical logic of forum websites further and aimed to reach university students (which are the major parts of Internet users in a sense), was purchased by YouthRep which is an agency aiming to reach totally high school and university students and of which does not aims online works.

This is a kind of news which will not surprise us even at first we hear it. YouthRep wanted to have a support at online by making a purchase in a field that is appropriate for them and this choice certainly will provide great benefit to them.

The actual surprising point in the news is a speculation arising due to the fact that public opinion was not informed about the amounts in this purchase as in all purchasing news.

How does a web application increase in value?

Nobody is asking this question, in fact. Rather than that, everybody prefers to ask “why was such amount paid?” Since the amount defined as “such” is not definite, there is something for everyone to be talking all at once.

Discussions focus on the article of Arda Kutsal published in Webrazzi which gave the news first.

“According to my personal opinion and estimations, we remember that there was about 8.000 TL – 12.000 TL monthly advertisement incomes in 2008 as to the information given by our sources for OrtaKantin.com. We learnt from an important source that current advertisement income is about 20.000 TL – 24.000 TL monthly. In this case, we can consider that its value may reach approximately 700.000 – 800.000 TL for the whole service.”

Even though Arda Kutsal implies that “this is my personal opinion and estimation”, giving measurable amounts is quite thought-provoking. How can guessing be true or which criteria are taken as a base for this estimation unless amounts are expressed by officially as we met before?

Before anything else, it is impossible to have advertisement income about monthly 24.000 TL by a website that we can call as “small” with less than daily 10.000 single hits. We are sure about it and Arda Kutsal knows it at least as we know. Since there is no other income model of the website – as Arda Kutsal already mentioned that the amounts are advertisement income –, how such income is obtained?

Even those said by Arda Kutsal are remarkable since he is a reliable writer, non-existence of any reference except those “heard by him” about these incomes both strengthens speculations and also harms the decent position of Arda Kutsal in the market that he obtained for long years. In my opinion, even if he is just guessing, he should base his estimations on “an objective source” or he should not make any estimation.

The second problem is how a service with about 91.000 members can reach the assessment about 700.000 TL – 800.000 TL. The real point here is the explicit income amount actually.

Although an income about monthly 20.000 TL is mentioned, it is confusing that no expense is expressed. Is it expense-free net profit or total income? If it is net profit, then the service can has a value of 800.000 TL. However, another issue that should not be forgotten is the balance of income. Can OrtaKantin reach these amounts every month of year or does it decrease to lower levels at about 5 months of year in which university students are inactive?

Second choice makes sense to me. In this case, calculating annual income as 288.000 TL since ortakantin earns 24.000 TL in some months is quite “beadledom”. As a matter of fact, nobody sells a service with these annual incomes for 3 years’ income.

Either the assessment predicted by Arda Kutsal is wrong or this website increased in value about 200.000 TL or as a third reasonable option, the assessment of Arda Kutsal is correct, however YouthRep made this investment for not the net income of the website but by considering the portfolio of the website.

Let’s ask ourselves again how an assesment of a website should be done. Just as FriendFeed which has no income model was sold for 47 million dollar for its strategical importance, ortakantin.com which will barely obtain an income about 24.000 TL monthly might be bought about 800.000 TL due to its strategical position for YouthRep.

An individual turning his back to empty lands by saying “even tomato can not grow here” is an unsuccessful investor. The real investor knows that “nothing springs up on lands with mines under it”. Probably YoutRep saw and/or felt that there is mine under this land, thus the website reached such amounts.

Hope best luck for both sides in this purchase; we will follow the future of the website.

In my opinion, some people try to burn out Arda Kutsal due to nonsensical issues; for that reason, he should inform public opinion with more “tangible” sources in order to prevent them.